Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate?

We find that analyst target price revision is more reliable than target price level in predicting future returns. Unlike target price level, revision in target price is unlikely to be subject to conflicts of interest.

How accurate are analyst estimates?

Based on their 2012 study of more than 11,000 analysts from 41 countries, the overall accuracy of target prices is not very high, averaging around 18% for a three-month horizon and 30% for a 12-month horizon.

How often are analyst price targets accurate?

Studies have found that, historically, the overall accuracy rate is around 30% for price targets with 12-18 month horizons.