Mlb Dfs Picks and Analysis 4/16: the Grind Down

UPDATE: The NYM@COL and CWS@BOS games have been PPD.

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, April 16. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.

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ATL vs. CHC

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MLB DFS Analysis: (LHP | -130)

14700 DK ( 29.40% of cap) / 6700 FD ( 19.14% of cap) / 41 Y ( 20.50% of cap)

Baseball Stats Overview for DFS

Projections	Rating	Statcast Metrics	Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj.	14.60	Exit Velocity	89.40
PlateIQ FD Proj.	26.50	EV Percentile	35
PlateIQ Y Proj.	16.20	Barrel %	10.30%
DK Pts$	0.99	Barrel Percentile	10
FD Pts$	3.96	Statcast Hard%	40.90%
Y Pts$	3.95	Hard% Percentile	21

PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.

MLB DFS Split Stats (2019-2021)

Key Stats vs. L	Rating	Key Stats vs. R	Stats
Games	28.00	Games	28.00
Expected L	2.00	Expected R	6.00
xFIP L	4.95	xFIP R	4.55
K/9 L	8.77	K/9 R	10.82
BB/9 L	3.23	BB/9 R	4.09
GB/FB L	0.81	GB/FB R	0.79
HR/9 L	3.00	HR/9 R	1.92
Hard% L	44.10%	Hard% R	44.50%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!

We’ve got a 14-game main slate on tap for Friday, which means we’ve got one random afternoon affair, as well. has been pretty hit-or-miss in his first two starts with the Braves, but the veteran lefty finds himself in a favorable spot today. We have temps in the 40s and winds blowing in from the outfield at Wrigley, which makes for some excellet pitching weather. Smyly has a career 24% K-rate at the major league level, but he upped that all the way to 37.8% last year in 7 games with the Giants. That’s almost surely a result of the truncated season, but the Cubs (24.8% vs. LHP) also happen to be a pretty strikeout-happy offense these days.

You can always play both pitchers in a showdown contest, but Smyly is pretty clearly the priority over if you’re only going to roster one of the starters. Smyly projects as easily the best overall option in this game on either side.

Quick Breakdown: Smyly is an elite play today.

MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | 110)

15600 DK ( 31.20% of cap) / 7400 FD ( 21.14% of cap) / 32 Y ( 16.00% of cap)

Baseball Stats Overview for DFS

PlateIQ Category	Rating	Statcast Metrics	Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj.	12.80	Exit Velocity	88.50
PlateIQ FD Proj.	25.70	EV Percentile	58
PlateIQ Y Proj.	14.60	Barrel %	7.90%
DK Pts$	0.82	Barrel Percentile	34
FD Pts$	3.47	Statcast Hard%	33.30%
Y Pts$	4.56	Hard% Percentile	79

PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.

MLB DFS Split Stats (2019-2021)

Key Stats vs. L	Rating	Key Stats vs. R	Stats
Games	45.00	Games	28.00
Expected L	3.00	Expected R	5.00
xFIP L	5.45	xFIP R	4.38
K/9 L	5.49	K/9 R	7.61
BB/9 L	2.90	BB/9 R	2.89
GB/FB L	0.91	GB/FB R	1.34
HR/9 L	1.14	HR/9 R	1.14
Hard% L	32.60%	Hard% R	37.80%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!

has never been a guy that misses many bats, but his elite control numbers allow him to survive. He posted a career-best 22.8% strikeout rate last year with the Padres, but he’s more likely to be the 17%-18% guy he’s usually been moving forward. Davies’ control hasn’t been there through two starts with the Cubs (16.2% walks), but he also gets that same awesome pitching weather that Smyly does.

The issue for Davies is that his matchup is more difficult. The Braves’ offense hasn’t gotten off to a great start overall, but this is a lineup with a collective .200 ISO vs. RHP dating back to 2020. Davies still projects for the second-most raw points on this slate on DraftKings thanks to the weather, though, so I’m perfectly happy to just roster both starters in this one. As mentioned, though, I’d much rather get to Smyly if I’m only playing one of them.

Quick Breakdown: Davies isn’t as good as Smyly, but he’s still a strong play in all formats on this slate.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: ATL Batting

Player	DK Salary	FD Salary	DK Proj	FD Proj	ISO	Hard% (2020)	Barrel% (2020)
	16500	4500	9.9	12.9	0.276	0.425	16.00%
	15300	4100	9.6	12.5	0.267	0.462	14.70%
	13200	2800	8.7	11.3	0.24	0.435	15.40%
Travis d’Arnaud	12300	2600	7	9.1	0.187	0.383	11.20%
	12600	3000	7.9	10	0.202	0.299	9.10%
	11100	2500	6.8	8.7	0.176	0.352	11.40%
	10800	2200	6.3	8.1	0.198	0.333	10.00%
	8100	2100	6.2	7.7	0.115	0.253	1.10%
Pitcher Spot	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Break down every ATL vs. CHC hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

The career splits for Davies aren’t egregious in either direction (.316 wOBA vs. LHB, .308 vs. RHB), but his ground ball ability has always been significantly better against same-handed hitters. We don’t really love anything offensively in this one, but the Braves would still be the preferred bats. is the top option from ATL with the platoon advantage against Davies, but it’s not like you’re doing it wrong if you’d rather spend up for the incredible “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald from the right side. and will also swing the bat from the left side, while is a quality hitter that offers a substantial discount from Freeman or Acuna. The Braves’ 3.93 total is pretty underwhelming, of course, but you’ve gotta play some bats in this game.

Optimal Plays – , Jr.

Secondary Plays – , , Travis d’Arnaud, ,

Stackability – YELLOW

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CHC Batting

Player	DK Salary	FD Salary	DK Proj	FD Proj	ISO	Hard% (2020)	Barrel% (2020)
	11400	2500	7.7	10	0.252	0.358	10.30%
	11700	2700	7.9	10.2	0.226	0.356	10.40%
	13500	2900	8.3	10.8	0.212	0.353	7.80%
	14400	3600	7.9	10.2	0.228	0.282	5.50%
	15000	3700	7.9	10	0.223	0.274	8.10%
	9300	2100	6.5	8.2	0.181	0.231	4.30%
	9900	2300	6.5	8.4	0.177	0.385	4.50%
	10200	2200	6	7.8	0.173	0.328	10.50%
Pitcher Spot	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Break down every ATL vs. CHC hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

A lot of those fly balls Smyly typically allows may not go very far today thanks to the weather, but we’d still prefer RHBs against him. Smyly doesn’t project to have a super wide split, but righties have still historically had much more success against him (.333 wOBA) than lefties. , , and are your top options, as usual, while I don’t mind from the left side if you wanna be a little different. always carries pinch-hit risk, but he and are cheap ways to get exposure to this offense. The Cubs’ total (3.57) is even more underwhelming than the Braves, but we can attack Smyly with some right-handed hitters.

Optimal Plays – , ,

Secondary Plays – , , ,

Stackability – ORANGE

Statcast Data referenced above per baseballsavant.com