Vegas Lines & Team Totals

As with every daily fantasy sport, it’s hard to overstate the importance of Vegas lines in our daily research routine. Vegas has more invested in putting out accurate lines than anyone else in the world. The common thought is that Vegas puts out a line that tries to put even action on both sides, however, this is rarely the case. Vegas is more concerned with putting out accurate lines, so that the actual results end up falling on each side of the line 50% of the time. Vegas is more than willing to take a stance on certain games, because as long as they can produce accurate lines it will even out over time.

There are three main terms that you need to familiarize yourself with in regards to Vegas lines:

1) Point Spread – A point spread is a forecast of the number of points by which a stronger team is expected to defeat a weaker one, used for betting purposes. If the Cleveland Cavaliers are seven-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks, Vegas is essentially predicting the Cavaliers to win by seven points.

2) Over/Under – An over/under, also known as the total, is the projected total number of combined points scored by both teams. If Vegas has the total set at 208 points, they are expecting the two teams to combine to score 208 points.

3) Implied Team Totals – Using the point spread and the total, we can create implied team totals for each team. In the example above, the Cavaliers were seven-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks with the total set at 208 points. To find each team’s total, divide both the spread and the total by two, then add them together. In this case, the Cavaliers would have an implied team total of 107.5 and the Bucks would have an implied team total of 100.5.

Not only are Vegas lines accurate, but they are also free. Every single day, the oddsmakers put in a ton of research into these lines and there are hundreds of sites that post the lines for free. All it takes to find them is a quick Google search to find them. There are three sites that I recommend using for the Vegas lines.

1) Pinnacle Sports – Pinnacle is known for having the sharpest lines in the betting industry. Sharp lines typically have more value, as the betting public does not influence them.
2) Vegas Insider – If you like to see line movement, this is the site for you. Vegas Insider shows the opening line and total for each game, as well as the current line and total for each game at a number of different sportsbooks.
3) RotoGrinders – I also have to tout the RG Vegas Odds page. Not only does it look pretty, but it gives you the implied team totals, so that you don’t have to calculate them on your own.

Vegas lines help us predict game flow and spot favorable matchups. Game flow is important, because blowouts can really hurt a player’s fantasy production. Each NBA team plays 82 games, so whenever they are comfortably ahead, they will look to rest their key players in the fourth quarter.

Whenever there is a game with the potential to turn into a blowout, I am hesitant to roster players in that game. In the Blueprint Volume 2, we dive into this subject a little deeper, but basically we want our players to see a full complement of minutes. When are players only see 30 minutes, it is hard for them to reach and exceed value.

Blowouts should be treated differently when it comes to favorites and underdogs though. When a team is favored, their players will likely be very productive while on the floor if they are the team on the winning end of the blowout. We often see players reach value on the favored team even when they don’t see a full complement of minutes. However, I do my best to avoid taking players that are expected to be on the losing team of the blowout.

Potential blowouts should give cause for concern, but always remember that pricing dictates everything in DFS. You should never avoid an obvious value play, regardless of the situation. The blowout factor applies more to mid to high-end salaried players, especially those that are underdogs.

If large spreads are inherently bad for fantasy production, then we should give a small boost to games with close spreads, as players will see their usual allotment of minutes. The closer the spread, the more minutes we can expect the starters to play.

In addition to predicting game flow, Vegas lines can help us spot favorable matchups. A higher a team’s implied total, the more points they are expected to score. The more points that a team scores, the more fantasy points there are to go around. Make sure to check out the Volume 2 of the Blueprint, as we really dive into team totals and how to spot the best matchups on a nightly basis.