What Is a Naive Model in Statistics

Naive forecasting models are based exclusively on historical observation of sales or other variables, such as earning and cash flows. … These models require inputs of data from recent observation, but no statistical analysis is performed.

What is a naive model?

A model in which minimum amounts of effort and manipulation of data are used to prepare a forecast. Most often naïve models used are random walk (current value as a forecast of the next period) and seasonal random walk (value from the same period of prior year as a forecast for the same period of forecasted year.)

What is naive model in time series?

A naive forecast involves using the previous observation directly as the forecast without any change. It is often called the persistence forecast as the prior observation is persisted. … In this case, the observation at the same time in the previous cycle may be persisted instead.